Home Prices Have Risen 37 Months in a Row. What That Means If You’re Waiting to Buy in Seattle.

Have home prices stopped rising in the Seattle area?
No. NAR data shows July 2026 marked the 37th straight month of year-over-year price gains nationally, and Greater Seattle prices have stayed supported even as sales volumes slowed.

If you’ve been waiting for Seattle home prices to come down before you buy, this data point deserves a hard look. Not because it’s alarming, but because 37 months is not a blip. It’s a pattern. And understanding why prices keep rising even as sales slow down is the key to making a smart decision about your own timing.

Let me walk through what the NAR data actually says, what’s driving it, and what it means for buyers in King County and Snohomish County who are watching and waiting.

What the NAR’s July 2026 Report Actually Shows

The National Association of Realtors released its July 2026 existing-home sales data on August 11, 2026. Here are the headline numbers:

Metric	July 2026	Change
Sales pace (seasonally adjusted annual rate)	4.06 million	-1.7% from June; +0.7% YoY
Median existing-home price	$434,100	+2.0% from July 2025
Inventory	1.54 million units	-0.6% from July 2025
Months of supply	4.6 months	Unchanged from year ago
Consecutive months of YoY price gains	37	N/A

Sales are slower than last year’s pace in most months. But prices are still going up. That’s the data story that doesn’t get told often enough: a slow market and a falling-price market are not the same thing.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that “home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months. Year-to-date sales are up 2.4%.”

Why Prices Keep Rising Even as Sales Slow

This is the question buyers ask me all the time. If fewer people are buying, shouldn’t prices fall? Here’s the answer: it depends on why fewer people are buying, and what’s happening to supply at the same time.

Right now, we have a situation economists call “rate lock.” Millions of homeowners across the country, including tens of thousands in Greater Seattle, refinanced into mortgages between 2020 and 2022 at rates of 2.75% to 3.5%. Their current payment is dramatically lower than what they’d pay if they sold and bought something else at 6.66%. So they don’t sell. They stay put. The result is that inventory stays suppressed even as buyer demand softens.

Nationally, inventory was 1.54 million homes in July 2026, down from year-ago levels. That’s not a lot of homes for a country of 330 million people. In the Seattle metro area, inventory constraints are even more pronounced because of the region’s geography (water on multiple sides), restrictive land use history, and the fact that major employers have maintained local footprints even while reducing headcount.

When supply is constrained and demand is even modestly positive, prices don’t fall. They hold. Sometimes they rise. And that’s what 37 consecutive months of data shows.

The Snohomish and King County Picture

The national data tells one story. The local nuance matters too. Across Greater Seattle, the market has bifurcated:

• King County has seen more pressure from tech sector uncertainty, corporate restructuring, and affordability limits at higher price points.
• Snohomish County has seen rising buyer interest from buyers priced out of King County, with demand holding relatively better in cities like Bothell, Lynnwood, Kenmore, and Shoreline.

As we covered in our earlier look at Snohomish County buyer demand, the divergence between the two counties has been real and meaningful for buyers who have flexibility on location.

The common thread across both counties: well-priced, well-presented homes in desirable neighborhoods are still moving. The slowdown is concentrated in overpriced listings, properties with deferred maintenance, and homes in less-connected locations without light rail or freeway access.

The Math Behind “Waiting” for Lower Prices

Let’s be concrete. If you’re targeting a $900,000 home in the Greater Seattle area and expecting prices to drop 5% before you buy, you’re waiting for a $45,000 discount. Here’s the cost-of-waiting analysis:

Scenario	Home Price	Loan ($720K at 80%)	Monthly P&I at 6.66%
Buy today	$900,000	$720,000	$4,701
Wait 12 mo, price +2%	$918,000	$734,400	$4,795
Wait 12 mo, price flat	$900,000	$720,000	$4,701
Wait 12 mo, price -3%	$873,000	$698,400	$4,560

A 3% price drop saves you $141/month in principal and interest. But you also paid 12 months of rent in the interim. If your rent is $2,800/month, that’s $33,600 paid toward nothing. And if rates move up even modestly in the interim, the savings from a lower price can evaporate entirely.

The math doesn’t always favor buying immediately. But it does favor knowing what you’re actually waiting for, with real numbers.

What This Means If You’re Renting and Waiting

If you’re currently renting and telling yourself you’ll buy “once prices come down,” it’s worth running your own numbers rather than waiting on a general market prediction. Every month you rent is a month of housing cost that builds no equity for you, while your landlord’s mortgage balance, if they have one, gets paid down by your rent check instead.

That doesn’t mean renting is always the wrong choice. If you’re not sure how long you’ll stay in the area, if your down payment isn’t ready, or if your job situation is in flux, renting can be the right call regardless of what prices are doing. But “I’m waiting for a crash that might not come” is a different decision than “I’m not ready yet for reasons specific to my life,” and it’s worth being honest with yourself about which one you’re actually making.

A good exercise: calculate what 12 months of your current rent actually costs you in cash terms, then compare that number to the price movement you’re betting on. If your annual rent is $33,600 and you’re betting on a 3% price drop on a $900,000 home, you’re betting $27,000 in potential savings against $33,600 in guaranteed cost. The math doesn’t always favor waiting, even when it feels intuitively like the safer choice.

How to Actually Decide: A Simple Framework

Instead of trying to time a national market you can’t control, ask three questions that are actually about your own situation.

How long do you plan to stay? If it’s five or more years, short-term price movements matter much less than getting into a home and starting to build equity. Transaction costs on both ends make a purchase you’ll hold for two years a much riskier bet than one you’ll hold for a decade.

Is your financial foundation actually ready? A stable income, an emergency fund that survives the purchase, and a down payment that doesn’t wipe out your reserves matter more than catching the exact bottom of a market cycle. Buyers who stretch every dollar to time a market bottom are often the ones who get hurt if their job situation changes.

What does the specific home and neighborhood look like, not just the national headline? A $434,100 national median tells you almost nothing about what a well-priced three-bedroom in Kenmore or Lynnwood looks like right now. Local inventory, local competition, and local price trends in your specific target area matter far more than the national NAR number.

Answer those three honestly, and you’ll usually have more clarity than any amount of scrolling market prediction content will give you.

What Would Actually Cause Seattle Prices to Fall

It’s worth being specific about what would actually need to happen for a meaningful price decline, rather than treating “the market will crash eventually” as a plan.

A real, broad-based price decline typically requires a supply shock in the other direction: either a wave of forced selling, like the foreclosure wave during 2008-2011, or a genuine collapse in demand severe enough to outpace the current supply shortage. Neither is impossible, but neither is currently showing up in the data. Foreclosure rates remain historically low. Employment in the Seattle metro, while it has seen real tech-sector layoffs, has not seen the kind of broad regional job loss that historically precedes a real estate downturn.

A more plausible scenario than a crash is continued softening in specific segments, condos, higher price brackets, and less desirable locations, while well-located, well-priced single-family homes continue to hold value. That’s actually what the data already shows happening in Greater Seattle right now, rather than a uniform decline across the board.

None of this is a guarantee about the future. Markets can surprise everyone. But “waiting for a crash” based on a feeling rather than a specific, identifiable catalyst is a different strategy than waiting for a specific condition you’re actually tracking.

What Rate Movements Could Do to This Picture

Mortgage rates are the other lever that could change this math, in either direction. If rates fall meaningfully from current levels, expect two things to happen at once: monthly payments become more affordable for buyers, and some of the “rate-locked” homeowners currently sitting on 2.75% to 3.5% mortgages become more willing to sell, since the gap between their current rate and a new one shrinks. More inventory plus more buyer affordability could bring more balance to the market, though it could also reignite competition among buyers who had been waiting for exactly that scenario.

If rates rise further instead, affordability gets tighter for buyers, which could slow demand further, but it also reinforces rate lock among current owners, keeping supply tight. That combination has historically supported prices even in a higher-rate environment, which is part of why this 37-month streak has continued through a period of meaningfully higher rates than buyers saw a few years ago.

The honest takeaway: rate movements matter more to your specific monthly payment than they do to whether prices broadly rise or fall, because rates affect both buyer demand and seller supply at the same time, often canceling each other out at the market level even as they change what an individual buyer can afford.

What 37 Months Tells Us About the Seattle Market’s Resilience

Thirty-seven months of consecutive price gains spans:

• The fastest rate hike cycle in 40 years (2022-2023)
• Multiple rounds of tech sector layoffs in the Seattle area
• Geopolitical shocks and energy price volatility
• NAR commission structure changes from the 2024 settlement

Prices didn’t fall through any of that. Not nationally. And not in Greater Seattle. That doesn’t mean prices can never fall. It does mean there are structural reasons why they haven’t, and those reasons (limited supply, strong underlying demand, high replacement cost for new construction) are not going away in the short term.

I see buyers every year who say they’re “waiting for a crash.” Some of them have been waiting since 2019. The market has not crashed. And while it eventually might soften more meaningfully in some scenarios, the cost of waiting is real and accumulating each month.

What Buyers Should Take From This Data

Price appreciation isn’t uniform. Some segments of the Greater Seattle market have softened. Condos face more inventory and buyer hesitation than single-family homes. Some price brackets in King County above $1.5M have seen longer days on market. There’s nuance, and that nuance creates opportunity for smart buyers who are actually in the market, looking at homes, making offers.

The buyers who find deals right now are not the ones waiting on the sidelines. They’re the ones who know what a well-priced home looks like because they’ve been actively touring, and they move quickly when one hits the market.

The national data gives you context. Local knowledge gives you the edge. If you want to know what the current market looks like in Shoreline, Kenmore, Bothell, Lynnwood, or other parts of King and Snohomish County at your price range, let’s talk. Call or text 206-245-8813, or reach out through HomeProAssociates.com. I can walk you through what’s actually selling, what’s sitting, and where the value is right now.

And if you’re curious about your financing options in this environment, start with these newer loan programs that have been helping Seattle buyers qualify at current rates.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are home prices going down in Seattle in 2026?

The national data through July 2026 shows prices up 2.0% year-over-year, marking 37 consecutive months of gains. In Greater Seattle, King County, and Snohomish County, prices have remained supported overall, though specific segments like condos and higher price points above $1.5M have seen softening. A broad price decline has not materialized despite slower sales volumes.

Why are home prices still rising when fewer homes are selling?

This is driven by “rate lock”: homeowners with 2020-2022 mortgages at 2.75%-3.5% are reluctant to sell and take on a new loan at 6.66%. That keeps inventory tight. When supply stays constrained, prices hold or rise even as buyer demand softens. Nationally, inventory was 1.54 million units in July 2026, still relatively low by historical standards.

Is now a good time to buy in Seattle?

That depends on your personal timeline, finances, and how long you plan to stay. The data shows prices have been rising for 37 consecutive months nationally. Waiting has a real cost: every month you rent, you’re not building equity, and home prices may continue to move. The better question is: what are your specific goals, and what does the math look like for your situation?

What is the current median home price nationally?

The NAR reported a national median existing-home price of $434,100 in July 2026, up 2.0% from July 2025. Seattle-area and King County median prices are higher than the national median due to the regional job market and limited housing supply. For local pricing data, contact Emily Cressey at HomePro Associates.

How long have home prices been rising nationally?

The National Association of Realtors reported 37 consecutive months of year-over-year price gains through July 2026. This streak has held through rising mortgage rates, tech layoffs, and geopolitical uncertainty, reflecting persistent supply constraints relative to underlying demand.